The Central authorities’s NSO workplace on Thursday launched the GDP figures for the primary quarter of the brand new monetary 12 months.
India remained the fastest-growing main economic system as China’s GDP progress within the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
The South Asian nation overtook Britain final 12 months to change into the world’s fifth-largest economic system, and not too long ago surpassed China to change into probably the most populous nation.
Its progress has rebounded for the reason that Covid-19 pandemic – up 7.2 % for the 12 months to March – and has remained close to the highest of the pack among the many world’s largest economies.
Thursday’s determine was the best in 4 quarters, with official statistics displaying on-year progress of 12.2 % for the monetary, actual property {and professional} providers sectors.
As per the NSO knowledge, the agriculture sector recorded a 3.5 per cent progress, up from 2.4 per cent within the April-June quarter of 2022-23.
Nevertheless, the expansion within the manufacturing sector decelerated to 4.7 per cent within the first quarter of the present fiscal in comparison with 6.1 per cent within the year-ago interval.
The nominal GDP or GDP at present costs in Q1 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 70.67 lakh crore, as in opposition to Rs 65.42 lakh crore in Q1 2022-23, displaying a progress of 8 % as in comparison with 27.7 % in Q1 2022-23, knowledge confirmed.
The expansion in Gross Home Product (GDP) in the course of the January-March quarter of 2022-23 was 6.1 per cent and 4.5 per cent in October-December.
The rise in Q1 GDP numbers come amid robust demand, sturdy service sector progress and elevated authorities expenditure.
The figures have overwhelmed sure estimates that had pegged the expansion at 7.7% within the June quarter.
In the meantime, the expansion of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to eight per cent in July 2023 in comparison with 4.8 per cent in the identical month final 12 months on enlargement in manufacturing of coal, crude oil, and pure gasoline, based on the official knowledge launched on Thursday.
‘Inflation no trigger for concern’
Addressing media after the discharge of the GDP numbers, CEA V Anantha Nageswaran stated that the figures are in step with expectations.
On rising inflation as a consequence of latest spike in vegetable costs, the CEA that it’s no reason for concern as the federal government in addition to RBI are taking measures to keep up enough provide.
“Meals inflation is prone to subside with arrival of recent inventory and govt measures … impression of poor rains in August might be watched,” he stated.
Nageswaran additionally stated that the rising crude costs could warrant consideration. “Extended geo-political uncertainty, tighter monetary circumstances additionally pose danger to progress,” he added.
The CEA additionally stated that in the meanwhile, there is no such thing as a risk to the 5.9% fiscal deficit goal introduced in Union Price range 2023-24.
Professional views
Sachchidanand Shukla, group chief economist at L&T Mumbai: “Q1 GDP numbers (are) broadly in step with expectations, with a affirmation of weak point on the consumption aspect and with El Nino impression but to replicate on agri/rural and discretionary consumption. However importantly, whereas from a year-on-year perspective this appears a peak for GDP numbers, from an absolute output perspective the numbers will really be going up every subsequent quarter for the rest of FY24.”
Sujan Hajra, chief economist & govt director, Anand Rathi shares and inventory brokers, Mumbai: “India’s GDP progress in Q1FY24 at 7.8% was a tad beneath our expectations of 8%. This as soon as once more makes India the quickest rising main economic system, a place the nation is prone to keep for a number of years. But, we don’t anticipate this tempo to proceed for the remainder of the 12 months and see the yearly progress at 6.2%. However that, too, is superb efficiency in opposition to the present international backdrop.”
“We anticipate consumption to stay resilient and web exports to enhance in the course of the 12 months however nonetheless stay a drag. We anticipate slowdown in funding. However that is prone to get better in FY25. With robust progress and elevated inflation, the RBI can be hard-pressed to tighten financial insurance policies. If retail inflation does stay excessive in August, we might anticipate a symbolic fee hike.”
Garima Kapoor, economist, institutional equities, Elara Capital, Mumbai: “Financial exercise in Q1 FY24 at 7.8% was boosted by a continued uptick in city centric providers demand, and improved funding exercise, led primarily by authorities. We see FY24 GDP progress at 6.2-6.3%.
(With inputs from companies)
